Skip to content

Category: Uncategorized

From Rogue State to Failed State?: The Perils of Intervention in Venezuela

On January 3, 2026, U.S. special forces executed a spectacular raid on Caracas, resulting in the abduction of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro, who now faces charges of drug trafficking in the Southern District of New York. Hours later, President Donald Trump proclaimed that his administration intends to “run Venezuela.” But Maduro’s regime has been left largely intact, with the Trump administration sending mixed signals as to what course it intends for Venezuela’s future. the intervention will test the limits of the Trump administration’s new Monroe Doctrine in the Americas. Whether or not Maduro’s ouster is eventually viewed as a strategic success in and outside of the hemisphere will likely depend on the White House’s understanding of the country’s pre-intervention crises.

Read More

India and the Political Economy of Deferred Power

India is not short of capable indi­viduals or reform ideas. What it lacks is a sufficiently broad and durable coalition that sees institutional transformation—not merely growth or pres­tige—as central to its interests, and that possesses the po­litical leverage to impose costs on those who benefit from stasis. Until such a coalition emerges, India is likely to continue along its current path: resilient, consequential, and incrementally improving, but structur­ally constrained in its ability to convert potential into first-rank power.

Read More

Revisiting the Determinants of Economic Growth Theory

Reframed industrial policy strengthens the conditions under which innovation and diffusion occur. A workforce that is secure and rooted is more likely to invest in training and adapt to new processes, while regions trapped in decline experience outmigration, firm exit, and the erosion of the civic and relational infrastructure that supports work.

Read More

Understanding the LLM Bubble

If there is no path to superintelligence by 2028, and there is little prospect of the dramatic product improvements needed to drive major short-term revenue growth (including solutions to inaccuracy and unreliability issues), it will be impossible to sustain either the investment boom or the LLM industry, as currently organized and operated.

Read More

Industrial Finance for the Twenty-First Century

American reindustrialization will require trillions in investment over decades, retraining an entire generation of skilled labor, and a cultural shift toward patient investment over quarterly gains. The NIC provides a persuasive answer to the question of how to finance American reindustrialization when conventional finance falls short. To be clear, the broader financial sector must play a role in helping industrialists build factories at scale, but the NIC provides an important institutional innovation that addresses a real market gap..

Read More

Credit Where It Counts: The Case for a New Credit Constitution and How to Build One

Demography is not destiny when the pipes are wrong. A credit system that privileges bidding wars over throughput goes against the middle-class and pro-family values that most American politicians and voters profess to hold dear. It turns shelter into a leveraged asset class, converts the cost of living into a financial variable, and pushes younger cohorts into either precarious renting or dangerous leverage.

Read More

Transportation Policy in the Age of Disruption

In past decades, American surface transportation policy centered around questions like how much to spend, how much to distribute between roads and transit, and how much each state should get in return for its federal gas tax contribution. Today, surface transportation policy is taking place against the backdrop of multiple technology revolutions in autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles, with China potentially poised to dominate the latter—and possibly the former as well.

Read More

Restoring American Self-Sufficiency in Pharmaceutical Production

Paradoxically, Western pharmaceutical companies impose persistent price inflation on these medicines, often exceeding general inflation rates, while benefiting simultaneously from reduced production costs through outsourced API manufacturing and intense competition among Chinese suppliers. This dual advantage has made their business models unusually comfortable.

Read More

When the Government Owned Factories: The Defense Plant Corporation and Its Lessons for Today

The DPC’s experience offers a roadmap for contemporary efforts to rebuild strategic industries and reduce dependence on adversarial supply chains. America’s reindustrialization challenge today is primarily a capital allocation problem. The question facing policymakers is not whether to use equity, loans, or purchase commitments, but how to design sustainable financing mechanisms that maximize private capital leverage while maintaining fiscal discipline and avoiding the rent-seeking and political capture that has undermined previous industrial policy efforts. The lessons can be distilled into the following principles.

Read More

The Global Industrial Development Toolkit: Unpacking Trump’s Investment Deals with Japan and South Korea

Much as the South Korean government made investments in the 1970s and 1980s, or as development-oriented sovereign wealth funds do today, the United States should use the South Korean and Japanese investment funds to invest in long-term breakthrough technologies as well as to help critical U.S. industries obtain the financing they need to scale up manufacturing. Against this thesis, the funds’ planned investments in the shipbuilding, energy, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, and quantum computing sectors, make sense conceptually.

Read More
Sorry, PDF downloads are available
to subscribers only.

Subscribe

Already subscribed?
Sign In With Your AAJ Account | Sign In with Blink